I feel it is safe to assume that the government, or several governments, run exit routers for just such a purpose. Multiple techniques exist to embed tracking data into a Tor stream which will allow you to demystify who the traffic belongs too. The real Achilles heal to Tor, in my opinion, is that you anonymity is only as secure as the security of the exit router.
I think that Tor offers some semblance of anonymity, but no privacy really: Anonymity being the expression of, 'we know what you are browsing/downloading/looking at, but we do not know who you are exactly,' and privacy being the opposite as in an implementation of VPN technology where they know where the information came form and where it's going, but not what it is.
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